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"One of the Benefits of Marriage is Divorce." That's the theme of this WaPo article about the problems of getting divorced if you're gay. The article doesn't ask the larger question: Isn't it awfully early to have a sociology of gay divorce developing? The Massachusetts Supreme Court decision that mandated gay marriage is less than three years old.

Now, the article says only dozens of the 10,000 gay marriages in Massachusetts have ended in divorce in the past three years. If it's really "dozens," that means fewer than 1%, which is an impressive rate of stability. I've heard that 50% of heterosexual marriages end in divorce (though (i) the rate is falling, and (ii) the divorce rate in first-time marriages is far less--the serial polygamists distort the figures). Despite the mere "dozens" of divorces in the first three years, I'll still put my money on a rampant gay divorce culture emerging in less than ten years.

I could be wrong for a variety of reasons, but the most significant: Less than 1% of Massachusetts adults took advantage of gay marriage. I'm flying by the seat of my statistical pants here, but if the gay population nationwide is 3% (no, Kinsey-ites, it's not 10%), I'm guessing it's a bit higher in MA, where 4.4 million people live in permissive Greater Boston. If 4% of Massachusetts adult residents are gay, fewer than 25% of the gay population took advantage of gay marriage, whereas nearly 60% of adults are married nationwide. Why are gay adults getting married at such a decreased rate? Leftover Puritan morality in Massachusetts? Bath-house morality in Massachusetts? Gays only marry when they're truly committed or past their physically-fit gay prime (out-of-shape gay guys say it's hard to score at the bath-houses)? I have no idea. Consider this blog post a mere initial exploration. If anyone knows of any sources out there that address this issue, I'd like to see them.

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