Michael Kinsley at WaPo mentions some uncomfortable political facts about abortion:
The last thing in the world that Republican strategists want is repeal of Roe . If abortion becomes a legislative issue again, all those pro-choice women and men who have been voting Republican because abortion rights were secure would have to reconsider, and many would bolt.
Meanwhile, the reversal of Roe would energize the left the way Roe itself energized the right. Who needs that?
Abortion is the most important issue in American politics. It shouldn't be.
Others have as big an impact on the lives of individuals and a far bigger cumulative effect on society. No other nation obsesses about abortion the way we do. But many Americans believe that legalized abortion is government-sanctioned murder, or something close to it. And many others (including me) believe that forcing a woman to go through an unwanted pregnancy and childbirth is the most extreme unjustified government intrusion on personal freedom short of sanctioning murder. For many in these groups, abortion is almost by definition an issue that overwhelms all others, or comes close, when they are deciding how (and whether) to vote. It is also, on both sides, a reliable issue for opening wallets.
The first line about Republicans is ridiculously broad. It assumes that Republicans don't really think abortion is murder. Many of them do. But then again, many of them don't (Arnold and Rudolph), which is why I'm not a big fan of the Republican Party (the new big-spending Republicans are another reason, but that's a different story).
He also raises an interesting point about energizing the left. Perhaps, but it might do more to energize the right. Once abortion is no longer protected from debate and politics, many on the right would be more inclined to fight against it, including many who are so obsequious toward Supreme Court rulings that they respect Roe (more than one friend has said, "I hate it, but I'm not higher than the Supreme Court").
And would pro-choice Republicans go to the Democratic Party? I doubt it. A few would, sure, but for a lot of PCR's (again, Arnold and Rudolph), abortion is a nuisance issue. Once the initial ruckus died down, abortion would settle in different states or not, and the abortion issue in those states would calm down. Yes, there' d continue to be squabbles, but nothing like we've had these past 20 years.
More than once, I've wondered if Roe is a blessing. Don't vomit, hear me out (and I'm not the first pro-lifer to observe this, by the way). Roe came at a time when most of the Occident was liberalizing the abortion laws. The Supreme Court shut down the debate and instead of the liberal wave of politics of the 1960s and 1970s sweeping abortion rights into the states, a lid was put on a pressure cooker. The issue never got worked out. In Europe, abortion is a settled right in most of the countries. There's scarcely any debate over it. The same could've happened here, but when the debate was stifled, the steam started to accumulate. Instead of the U.S. quietly and mindlessly sliding in the direction of decadent Europe, the steam gathered. Now, if the lid is removed, there'll be a lot of heat, but things will eventually get resolved in the political decisions. And instead of quietly letting the U.S. become Sweden, a significant number of people are going to fight.
