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Miscellany Monday

Happy Summer. Enjoy the longest day of the year. * * * * * * * I love historical ancedotes, and this is one of the better ones I've heard recently: "Apocryphal story about Enrique Fermi, probably about other professors as well: student comes into Fermi's office, surprised to see that Fermi's got a horseshoe over his door and says, 'Professor, you don't believe in that, do you?' Fermi replies, 'Of course not! But they say it works even if you don't believe in it.'" Heard at this podcast. * * * * * * * The same podcast touched on the thought of C.S. Peirce. I remember thinking years ago, "I need to get a hold of some of his writings." But I never did. I might do it now. Anybody have any recommendations? * * * * * * * Due to easy Fed money, this is the bubble economy. Our economy has been one bubble after another since we went entirely off the gold standard in 1971: precious metals in the 1970s, then stocks in the 1990s, then commodities and real estate in the 2000s. I've seen many commentators and academics make this observation over the past 18 months, but the obvious never occurred to me: If this is the bubble economy, the trick is to find the next bubble and ride it up, then sell before it deflates. Easier said than done, of course, but I'm going to bet on precious metals and look for a replay of the 1970s. I just hope I can bring myself to unload them near the top, which won't be easy if it looks like the metal might monetize (be recognized as money) again. If that happens, the bubble won't burst because it won't be a bubble. If the metals are monetized, they're grossly under-valued right now.

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